Record-shattering numbers of young people leaving New Zealand

Wellington’s Sky Stadium can seat 34,500 people. If you took every Kiwi in their 20s who has left New Zealand in the past year and packed them in, you’d fill every seat – and still have a crowd of over 10,000 standing outside.
Data compiled by Infometrics shows a meteoric rise in overseas migration, led largely by under-30s. And while this is offset by even higher numbers of migrant arrivals, those migrants aren’t settling into the cities vacated by young Kiwis. The result is a brain drain of unprecedented scale, with every month of 2024 breaking records, more than doubling the usual rate of young departures.
In Wellington, higher-than-average job losses have fallen squarely on young shoulders: the same group most eager to leave the country. For those left in the capital, as one resident put it, it feels like “we’re living in a ghost town”.
Wellington resident Haven Wagner said the “ghost town” was growing by the day. The 28-year-old has been to a leaving party for one of his peers every week for the past six weeks, “and I don’t have that many friends”.
One of those parties was for Tristan Dryburgh, also 28, who has lived in Wellington for three years.
Dryburgh told Newsroom it was a fantastic city, with heaps of green spaces, good bars and amazing communities. But this weekend, he boarded a plane to Melbourne, and after that, he’s headed to London. 
He was sad to leave, because he was still enjoying a city he thought had a lot to offer. There was nowhere else in New Zealand he would rather live. But because the job market was “so constrained”, and because of a “distinct lack of people around my age”, Dryburgh decided to move. “I decided to leave Wellington because I decided to leave New Zealand”.
Dryburgh’s move is one of tens of thousands. He noticed a large exodus in 2021 and 2022 after Covid, which he reckoned “never really slowed down”.
According to statistics compiled by Brad Olsen, chief executive and principal economist at Infometrics, Dryburgh’s reckoning was dead on. In the graph below, which tracks up to May 2024, net migration began to plummet at the onset of the pandemic. When the Trans-Tasman bubble opened in April 2021, people began to leave again. 
By the start of 2023, departure rates had risen to roughly average levels. But instead of levelling out, the leaving rates intensified, soaring beyond prior records. 
From the start of 2001 until the post-lockdown uptick in mid 2022, the monthly leaving totals for Dryburgh’s cohort – the 25-29s – rarely exceeded 1500. And this is the age range with the highest average totals; they’re your most frequent travellers, young graduates with no family obligations, expendable income, and a hankering to see the world. But before 2023, this number had only cracked 1900 three times: the holiday periods of Decembers 2019 and 2017 and March 2011: the last time Kiwis were being lured to an Australian job market cheerier than our own. 
And then we hit January 2024. This marked the first time any age group of departing Kiwis had a monthly total above 2000, as 2095 of Dryburgh’s cohort left the country. Since then, every single month in 2024 has set a record, with no signs of slowing down. In May, the monthly leaving total reached 3356: more than twice the typical rate of migration. For the age groups on either side, the rise has been equally as sharp, even if the totals aren’t as high.
Dryburgh thought he understood why the numbers didn’t level out back in mid-2022. A bunch of young Kiwis took the first planes after the pandemic and started posting photos of their escapades in London, Bangkok and Prague. “There was an aspect of fomo (fear of missing out) generated by social media that encouraged people to leave behind sleepy New Zealand,” said Dryburgh. Plus, he said, “comparatively, you don’t get paid that well here. So people just left.” 
“We live in a world where it’s really easy to leave. It takes you a thousand dollars and you can leave and go get set up somewhere else,” said Dryburgh.
Young people in his age group are leaving at a dizzying pace. In the past year, more than 24,600 of them have left the country. Going up in age doesn’t reverse the trend: the 30-34s have lost 17,500 and the 35-39s have lost 11,900 (up 43 and 35 percent respectively). 
On paper, the crowds of young people headed away are offset by incoming migrants. But the newcomers aren’t settling evenly across New Zealand. According to data presented by Infometrics’ Gareth Kiernan, only five areas of the country are actually experiencing the effects of an increased migration flow. 
In order, those areas are: the Queenstown/Lakes District (up 3.14 percent) Auckland (up 1.59 percent), Christchurch City (up .85 percent), Rotorua District (up .41 percent) and – just barely – Hamilton City (up .02 percent). The rest of the country is tracking negative. 
Kiernan attributed much of the exodus to young people finally able to go on their OE, but economic factors were also at play. With Australia’s relative unemployment rate sitting 0.4 percentage points below New Zealand’s – a gulf not seen since 2012 – there was “little wonder that more people are looking for better opportunities across the Tasman”. 
But even in the 2011/2012 season, when that gulf last appeared and a migrant exodus peaked, young people weren’t moving in such massive numbers. The current rate is up 24 percent on 2012.
A tough job market nationwide is matched with young people headed across the ditch. This is being felt particularly in Wellington, where the coalition Government’s commitment to cut public sector spending has manifested in widespread job cuts. 
Many of these agencies are based in the capital, where the cuts have flow-on effects. A smaller population of bureaucrats means whittled demand for any satellite industries who rely on the public sector, a dwindling social sphere for the age groups who typically staff those roles, and increased competition for any who decide to stick around.
Olsen tabulated filled job changes by age for Wellington City and the wider country. Across the board, job losses have been felt hardest by the youngest workers. But while most age brackets have experienced similar trends – either positive or negative – in Wellington as they have nationwide, the age groups immediately above the 15-24 mark show some variance.
For 25 to 34-year olds in Wellington, the graph paints a dire picture. Nationwide, their employment rates are only down by about a percent. But in the capital, that number more than triples to 3.3 percent. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this age group is the same population most keen – and able – to pack up their bags and leave the country. 
“Even where there was growth, it wasn’t as strong in Wellington,” said Olsen.
The 35 to 44-year-old age group saw 5 percent employment growth per annum nationwide, but only half that rate in the capital. In fact, the only age groups enjoying relatively better employment opportunities in the capital were those already at the top of their careers: anyone 55 or above. 
“Long story short,” said Olsen, “yes, young people are definitely moving out of New Zealand at a record level, and Wellington’s job figures show that there are more young Wellingtonians who are out of a job too. All of which supports the view that young Wellingtonians are likely part of that departing cohort.”
Wellington Chamber of Commerce chief executive Simon Arcus told Newsroom the migration figures were alarming, but not surprising.
“In the windy city, it feels as though the winds of change are blowing the wrong way.”
We had a long way to go if we wanted to turn these numbers around, especially given Wellington’s population hadn’t grown at all since 2018, according to the latest census. 
“This isn’t just a problem for Wellington,” said Arcus, “it’s a worry for New Zealand as a whole. This is the workforce of tomorrow, and when young people choose to leave they’re taking with them skills New Zealand businesses need.” 
Some of the young people Arcus is worried about, people like Dryburgh, might not be gone for long. As he saw it, “a lot of [us] only have two-year working visas. So give it until 2025: there will be a greater influx of these people, otherwise they’ll move to Australia.” 
But he wasn’t entirely optimistic. “I think there will be a resurgence of people back in, but I don’t think it’ll be anywhere near as much as the amount of people who left.”